I’m embarrassed to admit how naive we were back then because we didn’t even think about it. That said, there are certain things that you pick up in person that you can’t see on the stat sheet. A single is not worth as much as a double or a triple, which advance players further around the bases, increasing their odds to score.
Sorry, but I have to leave that one open-ended for people. So we’re never going to be perfectly predictive. OPS (on-base plus slugging) is a sum of “on-base percentage” and “slugging percentage.” It’s designed to reveal more about a hitter’s value than traditional statistics like batting average (how often a player gets a hit per at bat) or RBI (how many runs a player drives in). We started looking into various ways of analyzing players and trying to find where the value was.
The Paul DePodesta net worth and salary figures above have been reported from a number of credible sources and websites. Resume Reading — Revisiting “Moneyball” with Paul DePodesta. Do you think statistical analyses like yours have changed baseball? On its own, on-base percentage marks how often a hitter gets on base per at bat by either a hit, base on balls, hit-by-a-pitch, or sacrifice fly. So we started saying, “Well, let’s investigate each player’s strength.
When we started, our philosophy was born out of necessity. Cleary, a 68-year-old retired financial consultant, has been playing every week for 20 years since founding the Princeton Scrabble Club in 1998. As everybody who read Lewis’ celebrated 2003 book knows, the A’s signed Hatteberg with the encouragement of the team’s bright young assistant general manager, Paul DePodesta. But that can fool you. Being a .300 hitter was the benchmark. The Strange Brain of the World’s Greatest Solo Climber, Revisiting “Moneyball” with Paul DePodesta. But this isn’t a new idea. Do you rely on probability theory, the math of potential outcomes, to help assemble a team? Again, it’s designed to tell more about a player than common statistics like batting average or RBI. Put it this way: It’s not the only way of doing things. I’m going to a tournament later today where I’m going to watch four games of high school kids.
With all of his earnings from his profession, he is living a life of luxury with his family. What are you looking for in high school players that you can’t see on the stats sheet? They were talented players, but they made themselves even better.
Michael Lewis has a nice line: “To the Oakland A’s front office, Hatteberg was a deeply satisfying, scientific discovery.” Do you agree? Unless an idea or a concept holds relevancy in today’s game, under today’s circumstances, then we have to be willing to not believe it anymore.
And that still has an impact.
The summer after my freshman year at college, I interned in Washington D.C. for Jim Pinkerton. Yes. But just as importantly, if not more importantly, are certain mental characteristics: their confidence, how they deal with their teammates, how they interact with their coaches and parents, how hard they play, how much they battle when they’re not just behind in a game but in a count. He talked about his breakthroughs with the A’s and misperceptions about Moneyball, and how steroids have played havoc with his player analysis.
But virtually every player has one tool. There is a good measure of competitive balance in today’s game that was more difficult to come by in the late ‘90s.
Or how they react when they get a bad call from the umpire. We can’t figure out exactly what’s going to happen, but if we can get our arms around a range of possibilities, that gives us a much better chance to at least make better decisions.
Matter, Biology, Numbers, Ideas, Culture, Connected. You know, I don’t know.
But because of the type of guy that Scott is, that made it even better.
But as a team, can we do it all?” It was about piecing together players we had on our roster and building a team that could do everything. What statistics are the most important to you? He’s a key figure in the book and movie because he embodied a veteran seen as unlikely to succeed. And because of that there can be confirmation bias.
1. The calculation for OBP goes like this: OBP = H + BB + HBP AB + BB + SF + HBP, H = Hits, BB = Base on balls, HBP = Hit by pitch, AB = At bats, SF = Sacrifice flies. It’s no different than a championship poker player or a card-counter at the blackjack table.
What do you mean by putting yourself in a position to get lucky? You had to find value where it wasn’t readily apparent. That makes the game an excellent playground for probability. We had some long conversations. You've read 1 of 2 free monthly articles. The calculation goes like this: Total Bases = Hits + 2B + (3B x 2) + (HR x 3). Have you ever been surprised by a player who outperformed his statistical profile?
I think a lot of it just has to do with time. You can find Lynda Woods Cleary playing Scrabble every Tuesday at a Panera in Princeton, NJ.
But that’s what makes baseball interesting, makes it emotional. The hero of the streak was Scott Hatteberg, who hits a home run to win the 20th game. You say a great Major League player is supposed to be 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, and run like a deer and have a V-shape back. There are a lot of players who were under the radar who contributed to our success over the years.
He was a very good prospect and got off to a very good start in his career. We don’t know everyone who was using, we don’t know when, and we don’t know what else they were doing. We know we’re still going to be wrong often, but we’re at least trying to give ourselves positive odds. You've read 1 of 2 free monthly articles. The guiding principle of our work is figuring out a way to deal with uncertainty. Four years ago, at the minor league level, from Low A up to Triple A, our clubs were under .500.
This article was originally published in our “The Unlikely” issue in August, 2013. It still boils down to the competition on a daily basis, and that’s what the fans see on the field. Recently, the hitter with highest OPS is Detroit Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera.
But we’re never going to be in a situation where our analysis tells us what’s going to happen. Schooled in economics at Harvard, DePodesta was developing a new way to interpret player statistics, finding value where nobody else was looking. We interviewed DePodesta for our 2013 issue “The Unlikely” because we were anxious to learn his methods for uncovering unlikely skills in baseball players through statistics and probability theory. I mean, this is out there!”. If he’d have come over to us and not played very well, our analysis wouldn’t have done him any good. As everybody who read Lewis’ celebrated 2003 book knows, the A’s signed Hatteberg with the encouragement of the team’s bright young assistant general manager, Paul DePodesta. As the game had changed, these beliefs hadn’t changed with it. It’s a fair question.
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